第10章. 预测与不确定性分析

An excellent foreCASTER is not more intelligent than everyone else; he only has his knowledge more systematically ordered.

——Anonymous

Recognized as recognized entities, there exist 'known knowns,' which refer to items or facts that have been established and understood. Additionally, acknowledged as unknown entities, 'known unknowns' signify situations where certain aspects have been identified but remain incomprehensible or unaccounted for. The term 'unknown unknowns' refers to a class of phenomena or concepts where not only the existence but also the very nature of such elements rema